TY - JOUR

T1 - Vector of Shifting Economic Activity in Russia: West–East

AU - Lavrovsky, B. L.

AU - Goryushkina, E. A.

AU - Shiltsin, E. A.

N1 - The article was prepared with the financial support of the Russian Science Foundation, project No. 23-18-00409.

PY - 2024/12

Y1 - 2024/12

N2 - A new look at the nature of spatial development in Russia assumes structural shifts of economic activity in the latitudinal direction. The main questions posed in this regard in the article boil down to the following. How dynamic can and should the development of the eastern territories be? Is it enough that the pace of their development corresponds to all-Russian indicators, or is preferential growth considered appropriate? A specific task is to assess the investment conditions under which, in the long term until 2026, an increase in the share of the eastern regions in the country’s GRP is possible. It is shown that in the case of prolongation of the existing ratio of incremental capital intensity in the Asian part of the country and the Russian Federation as a whole, an increase in the share of the Asian part in the GRP of the Russian Federation requires unreasonably high investment costs. A good result should be considered the stabilization of this share by 2025, with an average accumulation rate during the forecast period in the Asian part of approximately 30%.

AB - A new look at the nature of spatial development in Russia assumes structural shifts of economic activity in the latitudinal direction. The main questions posed in this regard in the article boil down to the following. How dynamic can and should the development of the eastern territories be? Is it enough that the pace of their development corresponds to all-Russian indicators, or is preferential growth considered appropriate? A specific task is to assess the investment conditions under which, in the long term until 2026, an increase in the share of the eastern regions in the country’s GRP is possible. It is shown that in the case of prolongation of the existing ratio of incremental capital intensity in the Asian part of the country and the Russian Federation as a whole, an increase in the share of the Asian part in the GRP of the Russian Federation requires unreasonably high investment costs. A good result should be considered the stabilization of this share by 2025, with an average accumulation rate during the forecast period in the Asian part of approximately 30%.

KW - Russia

KW - incremental capital intensity

KW - investments

KW - medium-term forecast

KW - spatial development

KW - structural movements

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85209778154&origin=inward&txGid=c908544a0a6927d8f08a62a29b5a98f8

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/99dd2108-16cf-3426-9563-adaa2759ce7d/

U2 - 10.1134/S1075700724700400

DO - 10.1134/S1075700724700400

M3 - Article

VL - 35

SP - 862

EP - 872

JO - Studies on Russian Economic Development

JF - Studies on Russian Economic Development

SN - 1075-7007

IS - 6

ER -