TY - JOUR

T1 - Transformation of international liquefied natural gas markets: New trade routes

AU - Filimonova, I. V.

AU - Komarova, A. V.

AU - Sharma, R.

AU - Novikov, A. Y.

N1 - Funding Information: The study was funded by the grant of Russian Science Foundation 22-18-00424 . Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s)

PY - 2022/11

Y1 - 2022/11

N2 - In 21st century with the growing awareness about climate change and role of fossil fuels in green-house effect, the world is looking for cleaner alternatives for energy sources including the active use of liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG trade volumes have increased over 3 times in last 20 years and reached almost 50% of global natural gas trade. The purpose of this research is to analyze the possible application of the network link prediction algorithm for the LNG market. Such analysis will help to find out the most feasible potential trade routes between global LNG trade partners and at the same time provide a statistical decision support model to help LNG suppliers find potential LNG markets. Quantitative analysis of the existing network of world LNG trade proved low degree of centrality and density, therefore there is a large room for growth in LNG trade connections. At the same time, the network is divided into 6 large subgroups on a territorial basis. The results from the study showed that European importing countries are emerging as the top potential market for LNG, impacting the developing countries gas supply security as LNG cargoes are being diverted to Europe. The most likely suppliers in this case may be Qatar, Egypt and Norway.

AB - In 21st century with the growing awareness about climate change and role of fossil fuels in green-house effect, the world is looking for cleaner alternatives for energy sources including the active use of liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG trade volumes have increased over 3 times in last 20 years and reached almost 50% of global natural gas trade. The purpose of this research is to analyze the possible application of the network link prediction algorithm for the LNG market. Such analysis will help to find out the most feasible potential trade routes between global LNG trade partners and at the same time provide a statistical decision support model to help LNG suppliers find potential LNG markets. Quantitative analysis of the existing network of world LNG trade proved low degree of centrality and density, therefore there is a large room for growth in LNG trade connections. At the same time, the network is divided into 6 large subgroups on a territorial basis. The results from the study showed that European importing countries are emerging as the top potential market for LNG, impacting the developing countries gas supply security as LNG cargoes are being diverted to Europe. The most likely suppliers in this case may be Qatar, Egypt and Norway.

KW - International trade

KW - Link prediction

KW - Liquefied natural gas

KW - Network graph

KW - Preferential attachment index

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85135374371&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/1bc034cf-3caa-3771-a8a5-3c12b8c85058/

U2 - 10.1016/j.egyr.2022.07.069

DO - 10.1016/j.egyr.2022.07.069

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85135374371

VL - 8

SP - 675

EP - 682

JO - Energy Reports

JF - Energy Reports

SN - 2352-4847

ER -