TY - JOUR

T1 - The Russian Economy: Borders of Growth

AU - Lavrovskii, B. L.

AU - Shil’tsin, E. A.

N1 - This article was prepared as part of the implementation of the R&D plan for the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, project no. 121040100262-7, “Tools, Technologies, and Results of Analysis, Modeling, and Forecasting of the Spatial Development of the Socioeconomic System of Russia and Its Individual Territories.” Публикация для корректировки.

PY - 2023/8

Y1 - 2023/8

N2 - The purpose of this article is to predict the likely dynamics of Russia’s GDP and consumption fund for 15 years, based solely on highly aggregated characteristics of investment activity—the savings rate and the incremental capital−output ratio. Hypotheses regarding investment parameters are formed with account for their values and trends during the retrospective period 2001–2020. The results of forecast calculations show that there is a fundamental possibility to ensure the average annual GDP growth rate for the period up to 2035 at approximately 3%. This will require serious investments to increase the savings rate to 26−27% in three to four years, at the same time significantly improving the quality of the investment resource and the return on additional capital, and to begin forming a production apparatus on a new technological platform.

AB - The purpose of this article is to predict the likely dynamics of Russia’s GDP and consumption fund for 15 years, based solely on highly aggregated characteristics of investment activity—the savings rate and the incremental capital−output ratio. Hypotheses regarding investment parameters are formed with account for their values and trends during the retrospective period 2001–2020. The results of forecast calculations show that there is a fundamental possibility to ensure the average annual GDP growth rate for the period up to 2035 at approximately 3%. This will require serious investments to increase the savings rate to 26−27% in three to four years, at the same time significantly improving the quality of the investment resource and the return on additional capital, and to begin forming a production apparatus on a new technological platform.

KW - GDP

KW - Russia

KW - forecast

KW - growth rates

KW - hypotheses

KW - incremental capital−output ratio

KW - savings rate

KW - world

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85173091096&origin=inward&txGid=aa6501c5e4eb25669842e7e8d229b5b6

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/f892ddc1-84de-355d-b867-21861e8fd2de/

U2 - 10.1134/S1019331623020053

DO - 10.1134/S1019331623020053

M3 - Article

VL - 93

SP - 205

EP - 212

JO - Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences

JF - Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences

SN - 1019-3316

IS - 4

ER -