TY - GEN

T1 - Stoсhastic model of the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime

AU - Kargapolova, Nina A.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2019 EUROSIS-ETI.

PY - 2019/1/1

Y1 - 2019/1/1

N2 - In this paper, a numerical stochastic model of the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime is proposed and validated. This model is based on an assumption that real weather processes are non-stationary random processes on a year-long interval. In this assumption, the model takes into account the seasonal variation of the real meteorological processes. The input parameters of the model are determined from the data of long-term real observations at weather stations. It is shown that the trajectories of the model proposed are close in their statistical properties to the real time series of the bioclimatic index under consideration. The results related to studying the influence of a climate change on the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime are given.

AB - In this paper, a numerical stochastic model of the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime is proposed and validated. This model is based on an assumption that real weather processes are non-stationary random processes on a year-long interval. In this assumption, the model takes into account the seasonal variation of the real meteorological processes. The input parameters of the model are determined from the data of long-term real observations at weather stations. It is shown that the trajectories of the model proposed are close in their statistical properties to the real time series of the bioclimatic index under consideration. The results related to studying the influence of a climate change on the time series of the average daily bioclimatic index of severity of climatic regime are given.

KW - Bioclimatic Index of Severity of Climatic Regime

KW - Climate Change

KW - Non-stationary Random Process

KW - Stochastic Simulation

KW - Time-series Analysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85076207311&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference contribution

T3 - 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019

SP - 185

EP - 189

BT - 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019

A2 - Fuster-Parra, Pilar

A2 - Sierra, Oscar Valero

PB - EUROSIS

T2 - 33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference, ESM 2019

Y2 - 28 October 2019 through 30 October 2019

ER -