TY - JOUR

T1 - On the Spatial Heterogeneity and Spatial Autocorrelation of Economic Activity Levels in Russian Regions

AU - Bufetova, A. N.

N1 - The study was carried out under state assignment project no. 5.6.3.2. (FWZF-2024-0001) “Expert Analytical, Organizational, and Methodological Components of the System of Indicative Planning of Scientific, Technological, and Balanced Spatial Development of Russia in the Implementation of Large Investment Projects.

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - Abstract: The article examines the features of manifestation of spatial spillover effects in the Russian economy and their relationship with the economic activity level and degree of its difference in regions. The study is based on analysis of spatial determinacy of the distribution dynamics of regional indicators using methods based on the theory of discrete-time Markov processes with a continuous state space. It is shown that not only a low economic activity level, but also a strong difference in its level is an obstacle to positive spatial externalities: regions that significantly lag behind their neighbors do not demonstrate accelerated development and increase the lag both from their neighbors and from the average for the entire population. Conversely, a small degree of difference between neighboring regions and an above-average economic activity level in them contribute to spatial spillover effects, the convergence of economic activity levels and, as a consequence, positive spatial autocorrelation of economic activity levels in regions. In this case, the greatest acceleration is achieved by regions that catch up with their neighbors, while the leaders somewhat slow the pace of development. Thus, spatial autocorrelation, which reflects the degree of similarity between neighboring regions, can be a consequence of spatial concentration or dispersion of economic activity, as well as the cause that intensifies these processes.

AB - Abstract: The article examines the features of manifestation of spatial spillover effects in the Russian economy and their relationship with the economic activity level and degree of its difference in regions. The study is based on analysis of spatial determinacy of the distribution dynamics of regional indicators using methods based on the theory of discrete-time Markov processes with a continuous state space. It is shown that not only a low economic activity level, but also a strong difference in its level is an obstacle to positive spatial externalities: regions that significantly lag behind their neighbors do not demonstrate accelerated development and increase the lag both from their neighbors and from the average for the entire population. Conversely, a small degree of difference between neighboring regions and an above-average economic activity level in them contribute to spatial spillover effects, the convergence of economic activity levels and, as a consequence, positive spatial autocorrelation of economic activity levels in regions. In this case, the greatest acceleration is achieved by regions that catch up with their neighbors, while the leaders somewhat slow the pace of development. Thus, spatial autocorrelation, which reflects the degree of similarity between neighboring regions, can be a consequence of spatial concentration or dispersion of economic activity, as well as the cause that intensifies these processes.

KW - Markov chain theory

KW - Russian regions

KW - distribution dynamics

KW - economic activity

KW - spatial autocorrelation

KW - spatial externalities

KW - spatial spillover effects

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/ea7ac945-1fba-32bd-b7a7-2ba65a587e6a/

UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=105016857921&origin=inward

U2 - 10.1134/S2079970525600222

DO - 10.1134/S2079970525600222

M3 - Article

VL - 15

SP - 190

EP - 201

JO - Regional Research of Russia

JF - Regional Research of Russia

SN - 2079-9705

IS - 2

ER -