TY - JOUR

T1 - On Scenarios of Development of the Arctic Economy and Navigation

AU - Pankova, Yu V.

AU - Tarasova, O. V.

N1 - Funding Information: The article contains the results of a study carried out in the framework of the project of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research-RGO No. 17-05-41018 “A comprehensive assessment of= options for the formation of a basic transport network in the Asian part of Russia: resource and socioeconomic opportunities.” Publisher Copyright: © 2020, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2020/9/1

Y1 - 2020/9/1

N2 - The article assesses the scenarios for the implementation of the northern vector of economic development of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the question of the role of the Northern Sea Route in the national economy is being raised: it will serve as a latitudinal transport coridor or artery, ensuring the redevelopment of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. On the basis of the input-output model, spatial forecasts of the country’s economic development until 2030 are obtained in three versions: with the inertial development of the NSR, with an increase in international transit, and with its addition of export supplies of mineral raw materials mined in the Russian Arctic. It is shown that the implementation of a complex of mining projects will lead to a positive national economic effect for the country as a whole. However, this will entail the strengthening of the export–raw material model of economic development, the growth of interregional differentiation in terms of investment in fixed assets.

AB - The article assesses the scenarios for the implementation of the northern vector of economic development of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the question of the role of the Northern Sea Route in the national economy is being raised: it will serve as a latitudinal transport coridor or artery, ensuring the redevelopment of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. On the basis of the input-output model, spatial forecasts of the country’s economic development until 2030 are obtained in three versions: with the inertial development of the NSR, with an increase in international transit, and with its addition of export supplies of mineral raw materials mined in the Russian Arctic. It is shown that the implementation of a complex of mining projects will lead to a positive national economic effect for the country as a whole. However, this will entail the strengthening of the export–raw material model of economic development, the growth of interregional differentiation in terms of investment in fixed assets.

KW - Arctic zone of the Russian Federation

KW - cargo turnover

KW - forecast

KW - impact assessment

KW - interregional interindustry model

KW - investment projects

KW - Northern Sea Route

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091557164&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=45293475

U2 - 10.1134/S1075700720050147

DO - 10.1134/S1075700720050147

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85091557164

VL - 31

SP - 514

EP - 521

JO - Studies on Russian Economic Development

JF - Studies on Russian Economic Development

SN - 1075-7007

IS - 5

ER -