TY - JOUR

T1 - Import Intensity of the Russian Economy

AU - Dushenin, Aleksandr I.

AU - Ershov, Yuri S.

AU - Ibragimov, Naimdzhon M.

N1 - The article has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation, the scientific project No. 23-18-00409.

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - In the pre-sanction period, foreign economic relations in Russia were growing in importance. While the country’s gross domestic product increased by 1.75 times in 2013 compared to 2000, imports increased by 5.7 times in comparable prices during this period. Despite actual and potential effects of comparative advantages, the growing dependence on foreign markets also had negative consequences. The study assesses the demand for imported goods, considering the existing interindustry relations in the Russian economy. The paper describes the first stage of comparison of direct and total costs for the Russian economy and presents mathematical tools used to calculate indicators of its import dependence. In the future, we are planning to extend this approach to examine the spatial economy of two macrozones, namely, the European and Asian parts of Russia. Statistics show that the direct import intensity of the Russian economy is approximately 6 %, which is less than the global average. The vertical specialisation index of about 11 % indicates a relatively low dependence of the export of domestic goods on imports. In 2014–2020, total import costs reduced the most in the pulp and paper industry (-5 %) and vehicle manufacturing industry (-3 %) mainly due to a decline in their import intensity. In general, the impact of forced import substitution turned out to be negative for most regions after 2013. The proposed methods can be used to forecast the trade balance and consequences of implementing various import substitution policies. Since that intermediate consumption flows are included in indirect and total costs, it is advisable to develop a methodology accounting for investment goods.

AB - In the pre-sanction period, foreign economic relations in Russia were growing in importance. While the country’s gross domestic product increased by 1.75 times in 2013 compared to 2000, imports increased by 5.7 times in comparable prices during this period. Despite actual and potential effects of comparative advantages, the growing dependence on foreign markets also had negative consequences. The study assesses the demand for imported goods, considering the existing interindustry relations in the Russian economy. The paper describes the first stage of comparison of direct and total costs for the Russian economy and presents mathematical tools used to calculate indicators of its import dependence. In the future, we are planning to extend this approach to examine the spatial economy of two macrozones, namely, the European and Asian parts of Russia. Statistics show that the direct import intensity of the Russian economy is approximately 6 %, which is less than the global average. The vertical specialisation index of about 11 % indicates a relatively low dependence of the export of domestic goods on imports. In 2014–2020, total import costs reduced the most in the pulp and paper industry (-5 %) and vehicle manufacturing industry (-3 %) mainly due to a decline in their import intensity. In general, the impact of forced import substitution turned out to be negative for most regions after 2013. The proposed methods can be used to forecast the trade balance and consequences of implementing various import substitution policies. Since that intermediate consumption flows are included in indirect and total costs, it is advisable to develop a methodology accounting for investment goods.

KW - import intensity

KW - import substitution

KW - input-output balance

KW - input-output models

KW - input-output tables

KW - openness of the economy

KW - vertical specialisation

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85189968801&origin=inward&txGid=bf2e8e71d5dbc586a05cdf7e89a686c3

UR - https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=65525022

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/a1e86150-c60c-3d86-a685-14e076eb20b4/

U2 - 10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-1-3

DO - 10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-1-3

M3 - Article

VL - 20

SP - 33

EP - 47

JO - Экономика региона

JF - Экономика региона

SN - 2072-6414

IS - 1

ER -