TY - JOUR

T1 - GIS-Technologies and mathematical simulation as tools for lightning-caused forest fire danger prediction

AU - Baranovskiy, Nikolay

AU - Barakhnin, Vladimir

AU - Yankovich, Elena

N1 - Funding Information: This research implemented with financial support by Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Grant 16-41-700831.

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - New approach to forecasting of forest fire danger caused by storm activity is presented in the article. This approach is based on using the criteria of forest fire danger and physically proved mathematical models of forest fuel ignition. The formula of criterion is based on a probabilistic assessment of forest fire danger and uses the main theorems of probability theory. Data of a forest fire retrospective on the controlled territory are used to assess the members in probabilistic criterion. Timiryazevskiy local forestry of the Timiryazevskiy timber enterprise of the Tomsk region is considered as a typical territory. It is shown that it is not enough to use only statistical information on forest fires for an adequate assessment of the forest fire danger caused by action of storm activity. Visualization of data is carried out with the use of geoinformation technologies.

AB - New approach to forecasting of forest fire danger caused by storm activity is presented in the article. This approach is based on using the criteria of forest fire danger and physically proved mathematical models of forest fuel ignition. The formula of criterion is based on a probabilistic assessment of forest fire danger and uses the main theorems of probability theory. Data of a forest fire retrospective on the controlled territory are used to assess the members in probabilistic criterion. Timiryazevskiy local forestry of the Timiryazevskiy timber enterprise of the Tomsk region is considered as a typical territory. It is shown that it is not enough to use only statistical information on forest fires for an adequate assessment of the forest fire danger caused by action of storm activity. Visualization of data is carried out with the use of geoinformation technologies.

KW - Forest fire danger

KW - Gis

KW - Lightning

KW - Mathematical simulation

KW - Prediction

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85020501136&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85020501136

VL - 1839

SP - 2

EP - 15

JO - CEUR Workshop Proceedings

JF - CEUR Workshop Proceedings

SN - 1613-0073

ER -