TY - JOUR

T1 - Analysis of geographic centrality and genetic diversity in the declining grasshopper species Bryodemella tuberculata (Orthoptera: Oedipodinae)

AU - Dey, Lara Sophie

AU - Simões, Marianna V.P.

AU - Hawlitschek, Oliver

AU - Sergeev, Michael G.

AU - Xu, Sheng Quan

AU - Lkhagvasuren, Davaa

AU - Husemann, Martin

N1 - Funding Information: Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. Orthoptera Species File to MH and LSD; Deutsche Gesellschaft für Orthopterologie to LSD; Gesellschaft für Wild- und Jagdtierforschung to LSD; DAAD Promos to LSD; Risk and Innovation Fund of the University of Hamburg to MH, MS and OH; SNSB Innovativ to OH; BMBF Promotionsförderung of Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung to LSD; Russian Federal Fundamental Scientific Research Program (FWGS-2021-0002) to MGS; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG HA 7255/2-1 to OH. Funding Information: This work benefited from expertise sharing and discussions within the DFG priority program SPP 1991. We thank Benjamin Wildermuth and Sajad Noori for support in the molecular lab. Moreover, we would like to thank the German-Mongolian expeditions for the possibility of obtaining samples from many locations in Mongolia. All sampling in Mongolia was performed under government permit #200008 (02.01.2020). Sampling in Germany was performed with the permit granted on 15 July 2019 by the government of Upper Bavaria. Many thanks to Eduardas Budrys (Nature Research Centre Vilnius, Lithuania), J?rgen Deckert (MfN Berlin), Paolo Fontana (CTT San Michele All?Adige), Andrey Gorochov (ZIN St. Petersburg), Tanja Koskela (JYU Jyv?skyl?), Judith Marshall (BNHM London), Bruno Massa (SAF Palermo), Ralph Peters (ZFMK Bonn), Susanne Randolph (NHM Vienna), Thomas Schmitt (SDEI M?ncheberg), Peter Schwendinger (MNHG Geneva), Villu Soon (UT Tartu), Arnold Staniczek (SMNS Stuttgart), Frank Steinheimer (ZNS Halle), Lars Vilhelmsen (SNM Copenhagen), Luc Willemse (NMNL Leiden) and Przemek ?urawlew (Projekt Orthoptera Polski) for providing data and to Thomas Wagner, Teresa Krebs, and students (TUM Weihenstephan; University of Hamburg) for field support. Thanks to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on a previous version of the paper. Moreover, we thank all citizen scientists who collected and published occurrence data to public databases. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

PY - 2021/8

Y1 - 2021/8

N2 - Human-induced ecological and climatic changes have led to the decline and even local extinction of many formerly widely distributed temperate and cold-adapted species. Determining the exact causes of this decline remains difficult. Bryodemella tuberculata was a widely distributed orthopteran species before the mid-19th century. Since then, many European populations have suffered drastic declines and are now considered extinct or critically endangered. We used ecological niche modelling based on a large dataset of extant and extinct occurrence data to investigate whether poor climatic suitability in the periphery of its global range was a possible cause of the local extinction of the European populations of B. tuberculata. We also used population genetics based on the COI marker to estimate and compare the genetic diversity of extant populations. We found that Europe still provides highly suitable habitats close to the climatic optimum, contradicting the assumption of climate change as major driver of this decline. Instead, changes in land-cover and other anthropogenic modifications of the habitats at the local scale seem to be the major reasons for local extinctions. Genetic analysis suggests Central Asia as center of diversity with a stable population size, whereas the effective sizes of the remaining European populations are decreasing. We found European genetic lineages nested within Central Asian lineages, suggesting a Central Asian source distribution area. Our results suggest that the declining European populations represent relics of a formerly wider distribution, which was fragmented by changes in land-use. These relics are now threatened by limited connectivity and small effective population sizes. Specific conservation actions, such as the restoration of former or potential new habitats, and translocation of individuals from extant populations to these restored sites may help slow, stall, or even revert the extinction process.

AB - Human-induced ecological and climatic changes have led to the decline and even local extinction of many formerly widely distributed temperate and cold-adapted species. Determining the exact causes of this decline remains difficult. Bryodemella tuberculata was a widely distributed orthopteran species before the mid-19th century. Since then, many European populations have suffered drastic declines and are now considered extinct or critically endangered. We used ecological niche modelling based on a large dataset of extant and extinct occurrence data to investigate whether poor climatic suitability in the periphery of its global range was a possible cause of the local extinction of the European populations of B. tuberculata. We also used population genetics based on the COI marker to estimate and compare the genetic diversity of extant populations. We found that Europe still provides highly suitable habitats close to the climatic optimum, contradicting the assumption of climate change as major driver of this decline. Instead, changes in land-cover and other anthropogenic modifications of the habitats at the local scale seem to be the major reasons for local extinctions. Genetic analysis suggests Central Asia as center of diversity with a stable population size, whereas the effective sizes of the remaining European populations are decreasing. We found European genetic lineages nested within Central Asian lineages, suggesting a Central Asian source distribution area. Our results suggest that the declining European populations represent relics of a formerly wider distribution, which was fragmented by changes in land-use. These relics are now threatened by limited connectivity and small effective population sizes. Specific conservation actions, such as the restoration of former or potential new habitats, and translocation of individuals from extant populations to these restored sites may help slow, stall, or even revert the extinction process.

KW - Center-periphery hypothesis

KW - Ecological modelling

KW - Insect decline

KW - Population decline

KW - Speckled buzzing grasshopper

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85109324497&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10531-021-02221-8

DO - 10.1007/s10531-021-02221-8

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85109324497

VL - 30

SP - 2773

EP - 2796

JO - Biodiversity and Conservation

JF - Biodiversity and Conservation

SN - 0960-3115

IS - 10

ER -