Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Identification of potential earthquake source locations zones in the Altai-Sayan mountain region: a new approach based on the morphometric terrain analysis and the geodynamic modeling. / Sobisevich, A. L.; Steblov, G. M.; Sentsov, A. A. et al.
In: Natural Hazards, 27.08.2025.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Identification of potential earthquake source locations zones in the Altai-Sayan mountain region: a new approach based on the morphometric terrain analysis and the geodynamic modeling
AU - Sobisevich, A. L.
AU - Steblov, G. M.
AU - Sentsov, A. A.
AU - Deev, E. V.
AU - Eppelbaum, L. V.
AU - Agibalov, A. O.
AU - Aleshin, I. M.
AU - Balashov, G. R.
AU - Kamenev, O. T.
AU - Kotov, A. N.
AU - Makeev, V. M.
AU - Perederin, V. P.
AU - Perederin, F. V.
AU - Rosenberg, N. K.
AU - Kholodkov, K. I.
AU - Safronov, O. V.
N1 - The work was supported by the Project “Investigation of the processes and patterns of occurrence, development, and transformation of catastrophic phenomena in the oceans and on land using seismoacoustic methods” (grant of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation 075-15-2024-642), “Study of the processes and patterns of occurrence, development and transformation of the catastrophic phenomena in the oceans and on the continents using the seismoacoustic monitoring methods”.
PY - 2025/8/27
Y1 - 2025/8/27
N2 - The usefulness of identifying seismically active zones in the Altai-Sayan region has been demonstrated through the analysis of anomalies in three morphometric terrain parameters (depth of vertical dissection, average height, and difference between second-order and third-order base level surfaces), processed using fuzzy logic tools. According to GNSS data and earthquake focal mechanisms, active faults strike-slip tectonic settings, where the major compression axis strikes northeast. Computer simulations have shown that this process leads to the accumulation of extensional horizontal stress in zones occupying approximately 50% of the investigated area, where 72% of all earthquake epicenters are localized and 83% of those have a moment magnitude of 5.5 or greater. The results of the morphometric terrain analysis and computer simulation enabled the delineation of 13 potential earthquake source zones with moment magnitudes Mw ≥ 5.5. Their configuration aligns well with observed recent seismicity trends and paleoseismological evidence.
AB - The usefulness of identifying seismically active zones in the Altai-Sayan region has been demonstrated through the analysis of anomalies in three morphometric terrain parameters (depth of vertical dissection, average height, and difference between second-order and third-order base level surfaces), processed using fuzzy logic tools. According to GNSS data and earthquake focal mechanisms, active faults strike-slip tectonic settings, where the major compression axis strikes northeast. Computer simulations have shown that this process leads to the accumulation of extensional horizontal stress in zones occupying approximately 50% of the investigated area, where 72% of all earthquake epicenters are localized and 83% of those have a moment magnitude of 5.5 or greater. The results of the morphometric terrain analysis and computer simulation enabled the delineation of 13 potential earthquake source zones with moment magnitudes Mw ≥ 5.5. Their configuration aligns well with observed recent seismicity trends and paleoseismological evidence.
KW - Altai-Sayan region
KW - Modern crustal deformation
KW - Morphometrics
KW - Potential earthquake source zone
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105014251169
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/bc3322dc-e5d0-3a47-8009-677cf435b7f4/
U2 - 10.1007/s11069-025-07596-3
DO - 10.1007/s11069-025-07596-3
M3 - Article
JO - Natural Hazards
JF - Natural Hazards
SN - 0921-030X
ER -
ID: 68949893