Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › Research › peer-review
Expected Scenarios of Development of Information Economy in the Global Economic System. / Bogoviz, Aleksei V.; Savinskaya, Dina N.; Kumratova, Alfira M. et al.
Models of Modern Information Economy: Conceptual Contradictions and Practical Examples. ed. / A Sukhodolov; EG Popkova; TN Litvinova. Emerald Group Publishing Ltd., 2018. p. 303-312.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › Research › peer-review
}
TY - CHAP
T1 - Expected Scenarios of Development of Information Economy in the Global Economic System
AU - Bogoviz, Aleksei V.
AU - Savinskaya, Dina N.
AU - Kumratova, Alfira M.
AU - Fonina, Tatiana B.
AU - Ibragimov, Naimdzhon M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2018 Emerald Publishing Limited.
PY - 2018/1/1
Y1 - 2018/1/1
N2 - Purpose - The purpose of this chapter is to compile the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system, determine the role of scenario that envisages practical implementation of the new model of a well-balanced information economy among these scenarios according to the criterion of effectiveness and probability, and select and substantiate the optimal scenario. Methodology - Due to the absence of initial statistical information that allows characterizing the basic conditions for further development of information economy in the global economic system, the method of stochastic modeling is used for describing forecast scenarios in this chapter. This method is used due to its applicability for forecast analysis in the conditions of uncertainty. With the help of this method, qualitative description of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is accompanied by selected quantitative characteristics, which are conventional, that is, they are given for comparing various scenarios, not for specifying a precise value of estimate indicators. Comparison of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is conducted using comparative analysis method. Results - It is concluded that the most effective and optimal scenario is the one that supposes implementation of the offered new model of a wellbalanced information economy - despite its lower probability as compared to the other scenarios. Recommendations - The set optimal expected scenario of development of information economy, which envisages application of its new well-balanced model, is recommended for practical implementation in the modern economic systems.
AB - Purpose - The purpose of this chapter is to compile the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system, determine the role of scenario that envisages practical implementation of the new model of a well-balanced information economy among these scenarios according to the criterion of effectiveness and probability, and select and substantiate the optimal scenario. Methodology - Due to the absence of initial statistical information that allows characterizing the basic conditions for further development of information economy in the global economic system, the method of stochastic modeling is used for describing forecast scenarios in this chapter. This method is used due to its applicability for forecast analysis in the conditions of uncertainty. With the help of this method, qualitative description of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is accompanied by selected quantitative characteristics, which are conventional, that is, they are given for comparing various scenarios, not for specifying a precise value of estimate indicators. Comparison of the expected scenarios of development of information economy in the global economic system is conducted using comparative analysis method. Results - It is concluded that the most effective and optimal scenario is the one that supposes implementation of the offered new model of a wellbalanced information economy - despite its lower probability as compared to the other scenarios. Recommendations - The set optimal expected scenario of development of information economy, which envisages application of its new well-balanced model, is recommended for practical implementation in the modern economic systems.
KW - Expected scenarios
KW - development of information economy
KW - optimal scenario
KW - modern Russia
KW - socio-economic system
KW - informatization
KW - Socio-economic system
KW - Development of information economy
KW - Optimal scenario
KW - Modern russia
KW - Informatization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85106726025&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1108/978-1-78756-287-520181031
DO - 10.1108/978-1-78756-287-520181031
M3 - Chapter
SN - 978-1-78756-288-2
SP - 303
EP - 312
BT - Models of Modern Information Economy
A2 - Sukhodolov, A
A2 - Popkova, EG
A2 - Litvinova, TN
PB - Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.
ER -
ID: 34919935