Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review
Estimation of possible climate change impact on methane hydrate in the Arctic Ocean. / Malakhova, V. V.; Golubeva, E. N.; Eliseev, A. V. et al.
In: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 211, No. 1, 012017, 17.12.2018.Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimation of possible climate change impact on methane hydrate in the Arctic Ocean
AU - Malakhova, V. V.
AU - Golubeva, E. N.
AU - Eliseev, A. V.
AU - Platov, G. A.
PY - 2018/12/17
Y1 - 2018/12/17
N2 - We study the potential impact of a possible warming in the Arctic Ocean in the 21st century on the methane hydrates stability zone. In order to assess the space-time variability of the ocean bottom temperature, we employ a regional version of a coupled ice-ocean model that has been developed at the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Brunch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. This study is based on a combination of the coupled ocean-ice model and a one-dimensional thermal diffusion sediment model. As an atmospheric forcing, some results obtained with CMIP5 climate models simulated with the RCP8.5 scenario (from 2006-2100) are used. We have found that warm North Atlantic water will have a major influence on the Arctic gas hydrates. In such regions as the Barents Sea, the West Svalbard continental margin, and the continental shelf of Norway methane hydrates may exist in shallow waters, where the strongest warming occurs. For this reason, these regions are most vulnerable to releasing methane into the ocean and the atmosphere when the sea water temperature is increased by approximately 2-3 °C. According to our estimates, the seafloor water warming in these areas during the next 100 years may lead to a shift in the upper boundary of the gas hydrates stability zone by 10-110 m.
AB - We study the potential impact of a possible warming in the Arctic Ocean in the 21st century on the methane hydrates stability zone. In order to assess the space-time variability of the ocean bottom temperature, we employ a regional version of a coupled ice-ocean model that has been developed at the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Brunch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. This study is based on a combination of the coupled ocean-ice model and a one-dimensional thermal diffusion sediment model. As an atmospheric forcing, some results obtained with CMIP5 climate models simulated with the RCP8.5 scenario (from 2006-2100) are used. We have found that warm North Atlantic water will have a major influence on the Arctic gas hydrates. In such regions as the Barents Sea, the West Svalbard continental margin, and the continental shelf of Norway methane hydrates may exist in shallow waters, where the strongest warming occurs. For this reason, these regions are most vulnerable to releasing methane into the ocean and the atmosphere when the sea water temperature is increased by approximately 2-3 °C. According to our estimates, the seafloor water warming in these areas during the next 100 years may lead to a shift in the upper boundary of the gas hydrates stability zone by 10-110 m.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059550214&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012017
DO - 10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012017
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85059550214
VL - 211
JO - IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
JF - IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
SN - 1755-1307
IS - 1
M1 - 012017
T2 - International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems, ENVIROMIS 2018
Y2 - 5 July 2018 through 11 July 2018
ER -
ID: 18072261