TY - JOUR

T1 - Ecologo-Geographic Distribution Patterns of the Italian Locust Calliptamus italicus (Linnaeus) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in the Easternmost Part of Its Range

AU - Sergeev, Michael G.

AU - Childebaev, Muratbek K.

AU - Ji, Rong

AU - Molodtsov, Vladimir V.

AU - Baturina, Natalya S.

AU - Van’kova, Irina A.

AU - Kim-Kashmenskaya, Marya N.

AU - Popova, Kristina V.

AU - Zharkov, Vasily D.

AU - Yefremova, Oxana V.

N1 - Distribution mapping and ecological modeling were financially supported by the grant of the Russian Science Foundation 22-66-00031 (https://rscf.ru/en/, accessed on 9 February 2025).

PY - 2025/2/14

Y1 - 2025/2/14

N2 - Grasshoppers (Acridoidea) are one of the most essential components of grassland ecosystems. They are mainly primary consumers and some of them, e.g., the Italian locust, may be very important pests. The main goal of this article is to discuss possible shifts in the species distribution relative to global and local changes. General patterns of latitudinal, longitudinal, and altitudinal distribution of its populations are revealed for the eastern part of its range (mainly from 70° E eastward). Data on its historic and modern localities with geographic coordinates were collected and analyzed. The Maxent approach was used to model species distribution. The comparative analysis shows there are no significant changes in its range. The analysis of altitudinal distribution over mountains of the region demonstrates no significant changes as well. The expected distribution of Calliptamus italicus based on the location points displays significant changes in areas suitable for the species and their evident associations with outbreak occurrences. The models created for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 unveil that, in the future, the local parts of the Italian locust range may shift northward and north-eastward, but the main areas with suitable conditions for this species will remain almost the same.

AB - Grasshoppers (Acridoidea) are one of the most essential components of grassland ecosystems. They are mainly primary consumers and some of them, e.g., the Italian locust, may be very important pests. The main goal of this article is to discuss possible shifts in the species distribution relative to global and local changes. General patterns of latitudinal, longitudinal, and altitudinal distribution of its populations are revealed for the eastern part of its range (mainly from 70° E eastward). Data on its historic and modern localities with geographic coordinates were collected and analyzed. The Maxent approach was used to model species distribution. The comparative analysis shows there are no significant changes in its range. The analysis of altitudinal distribution over mountains of the region demonstrates no significant changes as well. The expected distribution of Calliptamus italicus based on the location points displays significant changes in areas suitable for the species and their evident associations with outbreak occurrences. The models created for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 unveil that, in the future, the local parts of the Italian locust range may shift northward and north-eastward, but the main areas with suitable conditions for this species will remain almost the same.

KW - Inner Asia

KW - Maxent

KW - climate changes

KW - dispersal

KW - dynamics

KW - modeling

KW - outbreak risks

KW - plant protection

KW - population

KW - range

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/1636ad20-768e-3b2b-bb19-192e2f772e15/

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85218504564&origin=inward&txGid=3cdbc3cf372fa73ecead708bd8fd9b74

UR - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40003840/

UR - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11856713/

U2 - 10.3390/insects16020211

DO - 10.3390/insects16020211

M3 - Article

C2 - 40003840

VL - 16

SP - 104

EP - 113

JO - Insects

JF - Insects

SN - 2075-4450

IS - 2

M1 - 211

ER -