TY - JOUR

T1 - Distribution patterns of the Baraba buzzing grasshopper Angaracris barabensis (Pallas) (Orthoptera: Acrididae)

AU - Pashkova, Alisa I.

AU - Molodtsov, Vladimir V.

AU - Storozhenko, Sergey Yu

AU - Baturina, Natalya S.

AU - Popova, Kristina V.

AU - Yefremova, Oxana V.

AU - Sergeev, Michael G.

N1 - Pashkova A.I., Molodtsov V.V., Storozhenko S.Yu., Baturina N.S., Popova K.V., Yefremova O.V., Sergeev M.G. Distribution patterns of the Baraba buzzing grasshopper Angaracris barabensis (Pallas) (Orthoptera: Acrididae). South of Russia: ecology, development. 2024;19(4):75-89. The study was financially supported by the grant of the Russian Science Foundation 22‐66‐00031(https://rscf.ru/en/project/22‐66‐00031).

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Aim. Angaracris barabensis is widely distributed across the Asian grasslands. It is often qualified as one of the important pests. The aim of the paper is to estimate possible shifts of its distribution relative to global warming. The geographic coordinates of 384 localities were determined for the species. Two different approaches to species distribution modelling (maximum entropy and multidimensional ellipsoid envelope) were used. The general patterns of distribution were described. Several models of the species distribution were generated and compared. The main factors of its distribution are revealed. Ecological modelling predicts opportunity of possible northward shifts of the species range in Central and East Siberia and persistence of areas of possible harmfulness in South Siberia, Mongolia and North China. Our predictions show two opposite trends. In the western and southeastern parts of the species range, suitability of conditions will decrease. In the central and north‐eastern parts, the suitability will remain almost the same or even increase. The comparative analysis shows there are no evident contemporary shifts of range boundaries of A. barabensis associated with global warming per se or this tendency is extremely weak. However, the distribution of suitable conditions can change significantly during the next several decades.

AB - Aim. Angaracris barabensis is widely distributed across the Asian grasslands. It is often qualified as one of the important pests. The aim of the paper is to estimate possible shifts of its distribution relative to global warming. The geographic coordinates of 384 localities were determined for the species. Two different approaches to species distribution modelling (maximum entropy and multidimensional ellipsoid envelope) were used. The general patterns of distribution were described. Several models of the species distribution were generated and compared. The main factors of its distribution are revealed. Ecological modelling predicts opportunity of possible northward shifts of the species range in Central and East Siberia and persistence of areas of possible harmfulness in South Siberia, Mongolia and North China. Our predictions show two opposite trends. In the western and southeastern parts of the species range, suitability of conditions will decrease. In the central and north‐eastern parts, the suitability will remain almost the same or even increase. The comparative analysis shows there are no evident contemporary shifts of range boundaries of A. barabensis associated with global warming per se or this tendency is extremely weak. However, the distribution of suitable conditions can change significantly during the next several decades.

KW - Acrididae

KW - Inner Asia

KW - forecast

KW - grasslands

KW - modelling

KW - plant protection

KW - population

KW - range

KW - steppe

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/4a3ba0be-813f-3ad0-be03-e60761c4dcb1/

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85216876551&origin=inward&txGid=e2b40d77c4e1e5efbfa5756532414f08

U2 - 10.18470/1992-1098-2024-4-7

DO - 10.18470/1992-1098-2024-4-7

M3 - Article

VL - 19

SP - 75

EP - 89

JO - Юг России: экология, развитие

JF - Юг России: экология, развитие

SN - 1992-1098

IS - 4

ER -