TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessment of Options for Using the Eastern Polygon Capacities

AU - Tarasova, O. V.

AU - Urina, U. S.

AU - Goryushkina, E. A.

N1 - The article was supported within the framework of the state assignment, project no. 5.6.3.2. (FWZF-2024-0001) “Expert-analytical, organizational and methodological components of the system of indicative planning of scientific and technological and balanced spatial development of Russia in the implementation of large investment projects.” Tarasova, O. V. Assessment of Options for Using the Eastern Polygon Capacities / O. V. Tarasova, U. S. Urina, E. A. Goryushkina // Studies on Russian Economic Development. – 2025. – Vol. 36, No. 2. – P. 260-270. – DOI 10.1134/S1075700724700734.

PY - 2025/5/13

Y1 - 2025/5/13

N2 - Abstract: The article examines the possibilities of optimizing the industry structure of railway freight transportation in the eastern direction under the limited capacity of the Eastern polygon. The aim of the work is to assess the economic effects of partially replacing coal export shipments with other cargoes. Using the optimization intersectoral interregional model (OIIM-transport), a scenario forecast of economic development up to 2030 is performed for various commodity structures of transportation. Alternative options are compared by the volume of gross output, final consumption, and employment in Russia and in the regional context. The difference between the scenarios with regard to tax revenues to the country’s budget system is also estimated. Calculations show that the optimal option for replacing eight million tons of coal at the Eastern polygon is a combination of grain, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum products. The additional increase in final consumption in 2030 is estimated at 1.2%. The implementation of the optimal option will require state support for some restructuring of the country’s economy.

AB - Abstract: The article examines the possibilities of optimizing the industry structure of railway freight transportation in the eastern direction under the limited capacity of the Eastern polygon. The aim of the work is to assess the economic effects of partially replacing coal export shipments with other cargoes. Using the optimization intersectoral interregional model (OIIM-transport), a scenario forecast of economic development up to 2030 is performed for various commodity structures of transportation. Alternative options are compared by the volume of gross output, final consumption, and employment in Russia and in the regional context. The difference between the scenarios with regard to tax revenues to the country’s budget system is also estimated. Calculations show that the optimal option for replacing eight million tons of coal at the Eastern polygon is a combination of grain, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum products. The additional increase in final consumption in 2030 is estimated at 1.2%. The implementation of the optimal option will require state support for some restructuring of the country’s economy.

KW - Eastern polygon

KW - Kuzbass

KW - carrying capacity

KW - coal export

KW - final consumption

KW - forecast

KW - freight railway transportation

KW - gross output

KW - optimization intersectoral interregional model

KW - scenarios

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/7e8681e5-2aa3-39a1-bcf4-03e1045d6c29/

UR - https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-105005232717&origin=inward&txGid=5ccd9bd5221a7b1d0e849a57f4c541c2

UR - http://1075-7007

U2 - 10.1134/S1075700724700734

DO - 10.1134/S1075700724700734

M3 - Article

VL - 36

SP - 260

EP - 270

JO - Studies on Russian Economic Development

JF - Studies on Russian Economic Development

SN - 1075-7007

IS - 2

ER -