Assessing the Impact of External Effects on Trade in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District

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Assessing the Impact of External Effects on Trade in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District. / Kovaleva, G. D.; Kostin, A. V.

In: Regional Research of Russia, Vol. 8, No. 4, 01.10.2018, p. 354-363.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

BibTeX

@article{2e445995b3c0491a8f21960e186dbc13,

title = "Assessing the Impact of External Effects on Trade in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District",

abstract = "The article presents a model-level verification of the hypothesis about the impact on foreign trade in the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and Russia made by oil prices in the world market, the ruble exchange rate, and anti-Russian sanctions. The results of research into the dynamics of foreign trade, its commodity structure, and regional specifics are outlined. An independent result is the experience of using iterative multiple stepwise regression, making it possible to identify a significant set of contributing factors and to estimate their role in inducing changes in the dependent variable. It is shown that the sanctions have not radically affected foreign trade. An impact on some SFD regions has been identified, but for the aggregate trade of the district, no influence from sanctions was revealed.",

keywords = "correlations, dynamic regional export–import models, exchange rate, foreign trade, risks, sanctions, Siberian Federal District, stepwise regression analysis, world prices",

author = "Kovaleva, {G. D.} and Kostin, {A. V.}",

year = "2018",

month = oct,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1134/S2079970518040044",

language = "English",

volume = "8",

pages = "354--363",

journal = "Regional Research of Russia",

issn = "2079-9705",

publisher = "Springer Science + Business Media",

number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing the Impact of External Effects on Trade in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District

AU - Kovaleva, G. D.

AU - Kostin, A. V.

PY - 2018/10/1

Y1 - 2018/10/1

N2 - The article presents a model-level verification of the hypothesis about the impact on foreign trade in the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and Russia made by oil prices in the world market, the ruble exchange rate, and anti-Russian sanctions. The results of research into the dynamics of foreign trade, its commodity structure, and regional specifics are outlined. An independent result is the experience of using iterative multiple stepwise regression, making it possible to identify a significant set of contributing factors and to estimate their role in inducing changes in the dependent variable. It is shown that the sanctions have not radically affected foreign trade. An impact on some SFD regions has been identified, but for the aggregate trade of the district, no influence from sanctions was revealed.

AB - The article presents a model-level verification of the hypothesis about the impact on foreign trade in the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and Russia made by oil prices in the world market, the ruble exchange rate, and anti-Russian sanctions. The results of research into the dynamics of foreign trade, its commodity structure, and regional specifics are outlined. An independent result is the experience of using iterative multiple stepwise regression, making it possible to identify a significant set of contributing factors and to estimate their role in inducing changes in the dependent variable. It is shown that the sanctions have not radically affected foreign trade. An impact on some SFD regions has been identified, but for the aggregate trade of the district, no influence from sanctions was revealed.

KW - correlations

KW - dynamic regional export–import models

KW - exchange rate

KW - foreign trade

KW - risks

KW - sanctions

KW - Siberian Federal District

KW - stepwise regression analysis

KW - world prices

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85062148302&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1134/S2079970518040044

DO - 10.1134/S2079970518040044

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85062148302

VL - 8

SP - 354

EP - 363

JO - Regional Research of Russia

JF - Regional Research of Russia

SN - 2079-9705

IS - 4

ER -

ID: 22474083